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Tag: WebOS

HP 2.0

The technology ecosystem just won’t give me a break – who would’ve thought that in the same week Google announced its bold acquisition of Motorola Mobility, that HP would also announce a radical restructuring of its business?

For those of you not up to speed, last Friday, HP’s new CEO Leo Apothekar announced that HP would:

    • Spend over $10 billion to acquire British software company Autonomy Corp
    • Shut down its recently-acquired-from-Palm-for-$1-billion WebOS hardware business (no more tablets or phones)
    • Contemplate spinning out its PC business

hpRadical change is not unheard of for long-standing technology stalwarts like HP. The “original Hewlett Packard”, focused on test and measurement devices like oscilloscopes and precision electronic components was spun out in 1999 as Agilent, one of the tech industry’s largest IPO’s. It acquired Compaq in 2001 to bolster its PC business for a whopping $25 billion. To build an IT services business, it acquired EDS in 2008 at a massive $14 billion valuation. To compete with Cisco in networking gear, it acquired 3Com for almost $3 billion. And, to compete in the enterprise storage space, it bought 3PAR after a furious bidding war with Dell for $2 billion. But, while this sort of change might not be unheard of, the billion dollar question remains: is this a good thing for HP and its shareholders? My conclusion: in the long-run, this is a good thing for HP. But how they announced it was very poor form.

Why good for the long-run?

    • HP needed focus. With the exception of the Agilent spinoff and the Compaq acquisition, all the “bold strategic changes” that I mentioned happened in the span of less than 3 years (EDS: 2008, 3com: 2009, Palm and 3PAR: 2010). Success in the technology industry requires you to disrupt existing spaces (and avoid being disrupted), play nicely with the ecosystem, and consistently overachieve. Its hard to do that when you are simultaneously tackling a lot of difficult challenges. At the end of the day, for HP to continue to thrive, it needs to focus and not always chase the technology “flavor of the week.”
    • HP had a big hill to climb to be a leading consumer hardware play. Despite being a very slick product, WebOS was losing the war of the smartphone/tablet operating systems to Google’s Android and Apple’s iOS. Similarly, in its PC business, with the exception of channel reach and scale, HP had no real advantage over Apple, Dell, or rapidly growing low-cost Asian competitors. It’s fair to say that HP might have been able to change that with time. After all, HP had barely had time to announce one generation of new products since Palm was acquired, let alone had time for the core PC division to work together with the engineers and user experience folks at Palm to cook up something new. But, suffice to say, getting to mass market success would have required significant investment and time. Contrast that with…
    • HP as a leading enterprise IT play is a more natural fit. With its strong server and software businesses and recent acquisitions of EDS, 3Com, and 3PAR, HP already has a broad set of assets that it could combine to sell as “solutions” to enterprises. Granted, there is significant room for improvement in how HP does all of this – these products and services have not been integrated very well, and HP lacks the enormous success that Dell has achieved in new cloud computing architectures and the services success that IBM has, to name two uphill battles HP will have to face, but it feels, at least to me, that this is a challenge that HP is already well-equipped to solve with its existing employees, engineering, and assets.
    • Moreover, for better or for worse, HP’s board chose a former executive of enterprise software company SAP to be CEO. What did they expect, that he would miraculously be able to turn HP’s consumer businesses around? I don’t know what happened behind closed doors so I don’t know how seriously Apothekar considered pushing down the consumer line, but I don’t think anyone should be surprised that he’s trying to build a complete enterprise IT stack akin to what IBM/Microsoft/Oracle are trying to do.

With all that said, I’m still quite appalled by how this was announced. First, after basically saying that HP didn’t have the resources to invest in its consumer hardware businesses, Apothekar turns around and pays a huge amount for Autonomy (at a valuation ten times its sales – by most objective measures, a fairly high price). I don’t think HP’s investors or the employees and business partners of HP’s soon-to-be-cast-aside will find the irony there particularly amusing.

Adding to this is the horrible manner in which Apothekar announced his plans. Usually, this sort of announcement only happens after the CEO has gone out of his way to boost the price he can command for the business units he intends to get rid of. In this case, not only are there no clear buyers lined up for the divisions HP plans to dump, the prices that those units could command will be hurt by the fact that their futures are in doubt. Rather than reassure employees, potential buyers, customers, and partners that existing business relationships and efforts will be continued, Apothekar has left them with little reason to be confident. This is appalling behavior from someone who’s main job is to be a steward for shareholder value as he could’ve easily communicated the same information without basically tanking his ability to sell those businesses off at a good valuation.

In any event, as I said in my Googorola post, we definitely live in interesting times :-).

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Why smartphones are a big deal (Part 2)

[This is a continuation of my post on Why Smartphones are a Big Deal (Part 1)]

Last time, I laid out four reasons why smartphones are a lot more than just phones for rich snobs:

  1. It’s the software, stupid
  2. Look ma, no <insert other device here>
  3. Putting the carriers in their place
  4. Contextuality

My last post focused on #1 and #2, mainly that (#1) software opens up a whole new world of money and possibility for smartphones that “regular” phones can’t replicate and (#2) that the combination of smartphones being able to do the things that many other devices can and phones being something that you carry around with you all day spells bad news for GPS makers, MP3 player companies, digital camera companies, and a lot of other device categories.

This time, I’ll focus on #3 and #4.

III. Putting the carriers in their place

Throughout most of the history of the phone industry, the carriers were the dominant power. Sure, enormous phone companies like Nokia, Samsung, and Motorola had some clout, but at the end of the day, especially in the US, everybody felt the crushing influence of the major wireless carriers.

In the US, the carriers regulated access to phones with subsidies. They controlled which functions were allowed. They controlled how many texts and phone calls you were able to make. When they did let you access the internet, they exerted strong influence on which websites you had access to and which ringtones/wallpapers/music you could download. In short, they managed the business to minimize costs and risks, and they did it because their government-granted monopolies (over the right to use wireless spectrum) and already-built networks made it impossible  for a new guy to enter the market.

imageBut this sorry state of affairs has already started to change with the advent of the smartphone. RIM’s Blackberry had started to affect the balance of power, but Apple’s iPhone really shook things up – precisely because users started demanding more than just a wireless service plan – they wanted a particular operating system with a particular internet experience and a particular set of applications – and, oh, it’s on AT&T? That’s not important, tell me more about the Apple part of it!

What’s more, the iPhone’s commercial success accelerated the change in consumer appetites. Smartphone users were now picking a wireless service provider not because of coverage or the cost of service or the special carrier-branded applications  – that was all now secondary to the availability of the phone they wanted and what sort of applications and internet experience they could get over that phone. And much to the carriers’ dismay, the wireless carrier was becoming less like the gatekeeper who got to charge crazy prices because he/she controlled the keys to the walled garden and more like the dumb pipe that people connected to the web on their iPhone with.

Now, it would be an exaggeration to say that the carriers will necessarily turn into the “dumb pipes” that today’s internet service providers are (remember when everyone in the US used AOL?) as these large carriers are still largely immune to competitors. But, there are signs that the carriers are adapting to their new role. The once ultra-closed Verizon now allows Palm WebOS and Google Android devices to roam free on its network as a consequence of AT&T and T-Mobile offering devices from Apple and Google’s partners, respectively, and has even agreed to allow VOIP applications like Skype access to its network, something which jeopardizes their former core voice revenue stream.

As for the carriers, as they begin to see their influence slip over basic phone experience considerations, they will likely shift their focus to finding ways to better monetize all the traffic that is pouring through their networks. Whether this means finding a way to get a cut of the ad/virtual good/eCommerce revenue that’s flowing through or shifting how they charge for network access away from unlimited/“all you can eat” plans is unclear, but it will be interesting to see how this ecosystem evolves.

IV. Contextuality

There is no better price than the amazingly low price of free. And, in my humble opinion, it is that amazingly low price of free which has enabled web services to have such a high rate of adoption. Ask yourself, would services like Facebook and Google have grown nearly as fast without being free to use?

How does one provide compelling value to users for free? Before the age of the internet, the answer to that age-old question was simple: you either got a nice government subsidy, or you just didn’t. Thankfully, the advent of the internet allowed for an entirely new business model: providing services for free and still making a decent profit by using ads. While over-hyping of this business model led to the dot com crash in 2001 as countless websites found it pretty difficult to monetize their sites purely with ads, services like Google survived because they found that they could actually increase the value of the advertising on their pages not only because they had a ton of traffic, but because they could use the content on the page to find ads which visitors had a significantly higher probability of caring about.

imageThe idea that context could be used to increase ad conversion rates (the percent of people who see an ad and actually end up buying) has spawned a whole new world of web startups and technologies which aim to find new ways to mine context to provide better ad targeting. Facebook is one such example of the use of social context (who your friends are, what your interests are, what your friends’ interests are) to serve more targeted ads.

So, where do smartphones fit in? There are two ways in which smartphones completely change the context-to-advertising dynamic:

  • Location-based services: Your phone is a device which not only has a processor which can run software, but is also likely to have GPS built-in, and is something which you carry on your person at all hours of the day. What this means is that the phone not only know what apps/websites you’re using, it also knows where you are and if you’re on a vehicle (based on how fast you are moving) when you’re using them. If that doesn’t let a merchant figure out a way to send you a very relevant ad, I don’t know what will. The Yowza iPhone application is an example of how this might shape out in the future, where you can search for mobile coupons for local stores all on your phone.
  • image Augmented reality: In the same way that the GPS lets mobile applications do location-based services, the camera, compass, and GPS in a mobile phone lets mobile applications do something called augmented reality. The concept behind augmented reality (AR) is that, in the real world, you and I are only limited by what our five senses can perceive. If I see an ad for a book, I can only perceive what is on the advertisement. I don’t necessarily know much about how much it costs on Amazon.com or what my friends on Facebook have said about it. Of course, with a mobile phone, I could look up those things on the internet, but AR takes this a step further. Instead of merely looking something up on the internet, AR will actually overlay content and information on top of what you are seeing on your phone screen. One example of this is the ShopSavvy application for Android which allows you to scan product barcodes to find product review information and even information on pricing from online and other local stores! Google has taken this a step further with Google Goggles which can recognize pictures of landmarks, books, and even bottles of wine! For an advertiser or a store, the ability to embed additional content through AR technology is the ultimate in providing context but only to those people who want it. Forget finding the right balance between putting too much or too little information on an ad, use AR so that only the people who are interested will get the extra information.

The result of all four of these factors? If you assume that a phone is only a calling device, you’re flat out wrong. And if you think a phone is just another device for accessing the internet and playing goofy little games, you’re also wrong. The smartphone will, in this blogger’s humble opinion, dramatically change the technology landscape, and the smart money is on the companies and startups and venture capitalists who recognize that and act on it.

(Image credit) (Image credit) (Image credit)

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