Skip to content →

Tag: xkcd

Standards Have No Standards

Many forms of technology requires standards to work. As a result, it is in the best interest of all parties in the technology ecosystem to participate in standards bodies to ensure interoperability.

The two main problem with getting standards working can be summed up, as all good things in technology can be, in the form of webcomics. 🙂

Problem #1, from XKCD: people/companies/organizations keep creating more standards.

standards

The cartoon takes the more benevolent look at how standards proliferate; the more cynical view is that individuals/corporations recognize that control or influence over an industry standard can give them significant power in the technology ecosystem. I think both the benevolent and the cynical view are always at play – but the result is the continual creation of “bigger and badder” standards which are meant to replace but oftentimes fail to completely supplant existing ones. Case in point, as someone who has spent a fair amount of time looking at technologies to enable greater intelligence/network connectivity in new types of devices (think TVs, smart meters, appliances, thermostats, etc.), I’m still puzzled as to why we have so many wireless communication standards and protocols for achieving it (Bluetooth, Zigbee, ZWave, WiFi, DASH7, 6LowPAN, etc)

Problem #2: standards aren’t purely technical undertakings – they’re heavily motivated by the preferences of the bodies and companies which participate in formulating them, and like the US’s “wonderful” legislative process, involves mashing together a large number of preferences, some of which might not necessarily be easily compatible with one another. This can turn quite political and generate standards/working papers which are too difficult to support well (i.e. like DLNA). Or, as Dilbert sums it up, these meetings are full of people who are instructed to do this:

66480.strip

Or this:

129847.strip

Our one hope is that the industry has enough people/companires who are more vested in the future of the technology industry than taking unnecessarily cheap shots at one another… It’s a wonder we have functioning standards at all, isn’t it?

Leave a Comment

Searching for a Narrative

I love the webcomic XKCD. Not only is it incredibly nerdy, its surprisingly on-point in terms of its take on reality. I found the comic below to be a good example of this:

sports

But whereas I find sports commentary to be somewhat plausible (because its about a specific person or small group of individuals that you might be able to interrogate and make inferences about), I think this is especially true on press describing the stock market.

Take the recent massive market downturn which occurred on Thursday, Aug 4th. Almost immediately, every press outlet had to have an explanation – people talked about fears of a Eurozone crisis, fears that the US and Chinese stimulus which have propped up global demand would vanish, fears that the US would be downgraded, and even talks that this was the media’s fault or the role of greedy banks using flawed computer systems.

The question that you never hear the press answer but which may be more relevant than all these narratives: is it even possible to know? You can’t ask the market what its thinking in the way that you might be able to ask a sports player or even a sports team, and its hard to run controlled experiments in the way a scientist might. And, while the psychology of the buyers and sellers certainly plays a big role, I think the simple truth is this: there is no real way to know, and its not only pointless to speculate but possibly counterproductive to try to explain the market’s movements. We’re all  hardwired to want a reason for something which is insightful and reveals something – but the fact of the matter is that trying to find reasons that aren’t necessarily there or even possible to validate pushes people into investing time and energy trying to control or understand things they can’t.

In my mind, its far better to take Warren Buffett’s approach: don’t waste your time on things you can’t predict or control or understand, take what you can get (the price of a stock or an asset) and make a decision based on that. Who cares why someone is offering to sell you something for $100 that is worth $200 – just make the right choice.

One Comment

Linux: Go Custom or Go Home

In a post I wrote a few weeks ago about why I prefer the Google approach to Apple’s, I briefly touched on what I thought was one of the most powerful aspects of Android, and something I don’t think is covered enough when people discuss the iPhone vs Android battle:

With Google[’s open platform strategy], you enable many suppliers (Samsung, HTC, and Motorola for starters in the high-end Android device world, Sony and Logitech in Google TV) to compete with one another and offer their own variations on hardware, software, services, and silicon. This allows companies like Cisco to create a tablet focused on enterprise needs like the Cius using Android, something which the more restrictive nature of Apple’s development platform makes impossible (unless Apple creates its own), or researchers at the MIT Media lab to create an interesting telemedicine optometry solution.

imageTo me, the most compelling reason to favor a Linux/Android approach is this customizability. Too often, I see people in the Linux/Android community focus on the lack of software licensing costs or emphasize a high-end feature or the ability to emulate some Windows/Mac OS/iOS feature.

But, while those things are important, the real power of Android/Linux is to go where Microsoft and Apple cannot. As wealthy as Microsoft and Apple are, even they can’t possibly create solutions for every single device and use case. iOS may work well for a general phone/tablet like the iPhone and iPad, but what about phones targeted for the visually impaired? What about tablets which can do home automation? Windows might work great for a standard office computer, but what about the needs of scientists? Or students? The simple fact of the matter is neither company has the resources to chase down every single use case and, even if they did, many of these use cases are too niche for them to ever justify investment.

Linux/Android, on the other hand? The open source nature allows for customization (which others can then borrow for still other forms of customization) to meet a market’s (or partner’s) needs. The lack of software licensing costs means that the sales needed to justify an investment goes down. Take some recent, relatively high-profile examples:

Now, none of these are silver bullets which will drive 100% Linux adoption – but they convey the power of the open platform approach. Which leads me to this, potentially provocative conclusion: the real opportunity for Android/Linux (and the real chance to win) is not as a replacement for a generic Windows or Mac OS install, but as a path to highly customized applications.

Now I can already hear the Apple/GNOME contingent disagreeing with me because of the importance of user experience. And, don’t get me wrong, user experience is important and the community does need to work on it (I still marvel that the Android Google Maps application is slower than the iPhone’s or my inability to replace Excel/Powerpoint/other apps with OpenOffice/Wine), but I would say the war against the Microsoft/Apple user experience is better fought by focusing on use-case customization rather than trying to beat a well-funded, centrally managed effort.

Consider:

  1. Would you use iOS as the software for industrial automation? Or to run a web server? No. As beautiful and easy-to-use as the iOS design is, because its not built as a real-time operating system or built for web server use, it won’t compete along those dimensions.
  2. How does Apple develop products with such high quality? Its simple: focus on a few things. An Android/Linux setup should not try to be the same thing to all applications (although some of the underlying systems software can be). Instead, different Android/Linux vendors should focus on customizing their distributions for specific use-cases. For example, a phone guy should gut the operating system of anything that’s not needed for a phone and spend time building phone-specific capabilities.

The funny thing is the market has already proven this. Where is Linux currently the strongest? I believe its penetration is highest in three domains: smartphones, servers, and embedded systems. Ignoring smartphones (where Android’s leadership is a big win for Linux) which could be a special case, the other two applications are not particularly sexy or consumer-facing, but they are very educational examples. In the case of servers, the Linux community’s (geeky) focus on high-end features made it a natural fit for servers. Embedded systems have heavily used Linux because of the ability to customize the platform in the way that the silicon vendor or solution vendor wants.

image

Of course, high levels of customization can introduce fragmentation. This is a legitimate problem wherever software compatibility is important (think computers and smartphones), and, to some extent, the Android smartphone ecosystem is facing this as more and more devices and phone manufacturer customizations (Samsung, HTC, and Motorola put out fairly different devices). But, I think this is a risk that can be managed. First, a strong community and support for industry standards can help limit issues with fragmentation. Take the World Wide Web. The same website can work on MacOS and Windows because the HTML is a standard that browsers adhere to — and the strength of the web standards and development community help to reduce unnecessary fragmentation and provide support for developers where such fragmentation exists. Secondly, the open source nature of Linux/Android projects means that customizations can be more easily shared between development teams and that new projects can draft off of old projects. This doesn’t mean that they become carbon copies of one another, but it helps to spread good customizations farther, helping to control some of the fragmentation problems. Lastly, and this may be a cop-out answer, but I believe universal compatibility between Linux-based products is unnecessary. Why does there have to be universal compatibility between a tablet, a server, and a low-end microcontroller? Or, for that matter, between a low-end feature phone and a high-end smartphone? So long as the customizations are purpose-driven, the incompatibilities should not jeopardize the quality of the final product, and in fact, may enhance it.

Given all this, in my mind, the Android/Linux community need to think of better ways to target customizations. I think its the best shot they have at beating out the larger and less nimble companies which make up their competition, and of living up to its full potential as the widely used open source operating system it can be.

(Comic credit – XKCD) (Image credit)

Leave a Comment

My Hobby

It’s not just Dilbert who makes fun of forecasting, XKCD is into it as well:

image

I wouldn’t call it a hobby, though. More like a day job that involves doing what is effectively described above, but making slightly more reasonable assumptions :-).

Leave a Comment

Discovery Channel Love

xkcd is one of my favorite webcomics, and is frequently featured in my Google Reader share list. It’s an extremely nerdy comic, and as such, is oftentimes incomprehensible to the layperson who does not necessarily get the computer science or physics or math jokes.

So, when I didn’t understand one of xkcd’s latest comics (below), I simply chalked it up to my not having understood some bizarre cultural or geek reference.

image

Lo and behold, I spot this little gem of a Discovery Channel ad on YouTube:

 

 

And then it all made sense!

Honestly, though, it’s a very cute and (I think) effective ad!

Leave a Comment