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Tag: Chrome

Staying in Sync

While I don’t expect everyone to be as device-crazy as I am, one of the obvious consequences of convergence (the idea that more gadgets will become more computer-like — think smartphones, tablets, etc.) is that more people will have more devices. This creates new problems for users who, especially if they are from the US, were previously used to accessing their services/information mainly from a single device. After all, a well-built service or source of information should optimize experience around the user, not which device.

This proliferation is one reason I think internet services like Evernote and Gmail took off: for someone working with multiple devices, its much easier to make sure every device has access to the same data and functionality when the data and functionality aren’t on the devices themselves but hosted somewhere “in the cloud.” (Thank you, Dilbert)

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The same logic applies to syncing services like Dropbox and applications like Netflix and smart syncing software like Chrome: they make it easy to ignore which device you’re using and just focus on the functionality and data that you want access to (in the case of Dropbox, its files; in the case of Netflix, its your viewing history and your place in a given video; and in the case of Chrome, its browser history and preferences).

Its gotten to the point where there are enough app developers and technologists working on this type of syncing that I get disappointed when a service or application fails to intelligently think about syncing as a way to delight the user. For instance, I get regularly irritated by the Twitter app for not tracking which interactions (@replies, favorites, re-tweets) I have previously seen. As I routinely move from one device (a smartphone) to another (a PC) to yet another (a tablet), with each device, I need to recheck which tweets and interactions I have seen and which I haven’t. While this is hardly the end of the world, it is only obvious because apps like Google’s new Hangouts app and Amazon’s Kindle app pass information on what you’ve seen and to where between devices, making it a coherent service completely unchained to the specific device you’re using – you can start a chat/book on one device and transition to another device without a hitch. I especially am a fan of Hangouts’ extra step: if you see an incoming message on one device, it will remove the notification from all the other connected devices (and will even minimize the open windows in other Chrome browsers).

This sort of abstraction is a common theme in the technology industry – where new companies and technologies emerge to simplify new sources of complexity. Its something I believe is becoming key functionality as the underlying problem (people with lots of devices and lots of services) grows. My advice to developers and entrepreneurs out there: don’t assume your users are married to any particular device and help them stay in sync. They will reward you for doing so.

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A Month with the Chromebook Pixel

Last month, I had the pleasure of attending Google I/O – Google’s annual developer conference and product geekfest. To put it simply, it was probably the nerdiest conference I’ve been to (and yours truly has been to some really nerdy conferences) with Google Glass users everywhere and flying, internet-controlled, camera-connected dirigible floating above the conference floor among the attractions.

One of the things that Google tried to emphasize to I/O attendees was the growing idea of Chrome, Google’s web browser, as a key platform for developers to embrace. Part of that message, of course, came from the talks and sessions where Google promoted Chrome’s widespread adoption (if you count mobile deployments, Google claims 750 million users worldwide) and proudly touted Chrome’s support of both sophisticated open technologies like HTML5, WebRTC, and WebGL, as well as proprietary-to-Chrome technologies like Native Client and their new Packaged Apps capability.

Equally (or perhaps more) effective was the conference’s giveaway of its Chromebook Pixel (not to mention some pretty interesting artistic displays showing off the device and its capabilities, see below).

My generally positive take on the Pixel’s predecessor Samsung’s Series 5 Chromebook is one of the more popular posts on this blog and so I thought I would share my take on Google’s latest and greatest. In a nutshell, I will say that the Chromebook Pixel is light years ahead of its predecessors and is an amazing device which hints at the potential of well-built Chrome OS hardware, albeit one which is probably not worth the $1200+ price tag:

    • Good, not good enough, performance: While the Series 5 routinely stumbled and hiccuped, the dual-core Ivy Bridge processor in the Pixel, while not the fastest chip around, was up to the task of almost any large web workload I threw at it – multiple tabs with Netflix and complex webapps like Tweetdeck and Gmail and Feedly running. Even Evernote, which I had not been able to get working on the older Chromebook, worked without any problems on the Pixel.
    • Amazing display: In the same way that other remarkably high resolution displays make you want to view more content (Nexus 10, Retina Display Macbook Pros), the Pixel has actually managed to steal web browsing and video watching time from my tablets, something I didn’t expect would happen.
    • Touch: I used to be a big skeptic of the importance of touchscreen displays on laptop form factors – no more. As cheesy as it sounds, the type of relationship you have with content is different when you can use touch gestures to zoom in/out and scroll up/down versus using arrow keys or a mouse. I can’t say that I primarily use the touchscreen in navigation, but it’s a nice touch (pun intended).
    • Much better industrial design: I don’t claim to be an ID expert, but the attention to detail on the machine is decidedly impressive for a company that many in the tech industry for years felt just didn’t care about design quality. The touchpad beats most of what the PC industry has put out in feel and responsiveness (although that’s a low bar to beat) and, taking a page from Apple’s playbook, supports multi-finger gestures. The device body is smooth aluminum with only a groove on the body for cool-looking LED lights to come out as a signal that the device is on and an interesting piano hinge for the display which someone engineered to function not only as a hinge but as a heat sink and Wi-Fi antenna. Simply put: it doesn’t feel or look cheap.

Couple that with the advantages I described to all Chrome OS systems (rapid boot, easy multi-user support, frequent and automatic updates, syncing tabs/histories/passwords with all your other Chrome browsers), and I think you have a fairly compelling device.

That said, three major problems are worth calling attention towards:

    • This is still just a browser: granted, most of what we do today is in or can easily be replaced by web-based applications of some form or the other, but, this won’t be playing Starcraft or running Excel or operating a server or doing software build work.
    • Underwhelming Battery life: for an operating system that is effectively a browser, I am surprised that my typical battery life is somewhere in the 3-4 hour range, and significantly lower if I’m using Netflix or YouTube. I can’t tell if this is simply an issue where Google included too small of a battery to save costs, if this is the energy from the extra processing power and backlight needed to run such a high-resolution screen, or if this is a operating system/firmware bug where the video codecs aren’t being used properly, but this is something that will likely need real improvement.
    • Extremely high price: while this is a fantastic device, its usage limitations (to basically being a big browser) and storage and memory and battery life limitations don’t make this a $1200+ machine. Interestingly, I do feel that if they included a dual-boot to Linux option, the screen and industrial design could very well justify a higher price (compare with Linux laptop vendor System76’s new Galago UltraPro)

So, the verdict? I am extremely happy I got this device for free from Google. It’s something I use regularly because it is a delight to use and really does put forward Chrome in a fantastic light for developers (which is really the purpose of the giveaway at Google I/O). This device is also probably more than enough for what the average computer user needs (who is mainly interested in checking email, reading articles, watching videos, and playing webgames) and has unique advantages for enterprise/educational settings. But, the fact that Chrome OS still can’t do everything that I need it to do and has limitations in battery life and storage and memory make it difficult to justify the high price for a regular consumer purchase.

Any other Chromebook Pixel users out there care to share their perspectives?

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Why Comparing Google Drive to Dropbox is Missing the Point

Last week, Google unveiled its long-rumored Google Drive product with great fanfare. While the gaggle of tech journalists/bloggers issued predictable comparisons of Google’s new service with online storage/syncing services like Dropbox, I couldn’t help but think that most of the coverage missed the point on why Google Drive was interesting. Yes, its another consumer-facing cloud storage service – but the really interesting aspect of it is not whether or not it’ll “kill Dropbox/Box.net/iCloud/[insert your favorite consumer cloud service here]”, but the fact that this could be the beginning of a true web “file system”.

I’ve blogged before about the strengths of the web as a software development platform and the extent to which web apps are now practically the same thing as the apps that we run on our computers and phones. But, frankly, one of the biggest things holding back the vision of the web as a full-fledged “operating system” is the lack of a web-centric “file system”. I use the quotes because I’m not referring to the underlying NTFS/ExtX/HFS/etc technology that most people think of when they hear “file system”: I’m referring to basic functionalities that we expect in our operating systems and file systems:

  • a place to reliably create, read, and edit data
  • the ability to search through stored information based on metadata
  • a way to associate data with specific applications and services that can operate on them (i.e. opening Photoshop files in Adobe Photoshop, MP3s in iTunes, etc)
  • a way to let any application with the right permissions and capabilities to act on that data

Now, a skeptic might point out that the HTML5 specification actually has a lot of local storage/file handling capabilities and that services like Dropbox already provide some of this functionality in the form of APIs that third party apps and services can use – but in both cases, the emphasis is first and foremost on local storage – putting stuff onto or syncing with the storage on your physical machine. As long as that’s true, the web won’t be a fully functioning operating system. Web services will routinely have to rely on local storage (which, by the way, reduces the portability of these apps between different machines), and applications will have to be more silo’d as they each need to manage their own storage (whether its stored on their servers or stored locally on a physical device).

What a vision of the web as operating system needs is a cloud-first storage service (where files are meant to reside on the cloud and where local storage is secondary) which is searchable, editable, and supports file type associations and allows web apps and services to have direct access to that data without having to go through a local client device like a computer or a phone/tablet. And, I think we are beginning to see that with Google Drive.

  • The local interface is pretty kludgy: the folder is really just a bunch of bookmark links, emphasizing that this is a web-centric product first and foremost
  • It offers many useful operating system-like functionality (like search and revision history) directly on the web where the files are resident
  • Google Drive greatly emphasizes how files stored on it have associated viewers and can be accessed by a wide range of apps, including some by Google (i.e. attachments on Gmail, opening/editing on Google Docs, and sharing with Google+) and some by third parties like HelloFax, WeVideo, and LucidChart

Whether or not Google succeeds longer-term at turning Google Drive into a true cloud “file system” will depend greatly on their ability to continue to develop the product and manage the potential conflicts involved with providing storage to web application competitors, but suffice to say, I think we’re at what could be the dawn of the transition from web as a software platform to web as an operating system. This is why I feel the companies that should pay more close attention to this development aren’t necessarily the storage/sync providers like Dropbox and Box.net – at least not for now – but companies like Microsoft and Apple which have a very different vision of how the future of computing should look (much more local software/hardware-centric) and who might not be in as good a position if the web-centric view that Google embodies takes off (as I think and hope it will).

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Chrome Remote Desktop

A few weeks ago, I blogged about how the web was becoming the most important and prominent application distribution platform and about Google’s efforts to embrace that direction with initiatives like ChromeOS (Google’s operating system which is designed only to run a browser/use the internet), Native Client, and the Chrome Web Store.

Obviously, for the foreseeable future, “traditional” native applications will continue to have significant advantages over web applications. As much of a “fandroid”/fan of Google as I am, I find it hard to see how I could use a Chromebook (a laptop running Google’s ChromeOS) over a real PC today because of my heavy use of apps like Excel or whenever I code.

However, you can do some pretty cool things with web applications/HTML5 which give you a sense of what can one day be possible. Case in point: enter Chrome Remote Desktop (HT: Google Operating System), a beta extension for Google Chrome which basically allows you to take control of another computer running Chrome a la remote desktop/VNC. While this capability is nothing new (Windows had “remote desktop” built in since, at latest, Windows XP, and there are numerous VNC/remote desktop clients), what is pretty astonishing is that this app is built entirely using web technologies – whereas traditional remote desktops use non-web based communications and native graphics to create the interface to the other computer, Chrome Remote Desktop is doing all the graphics in the browser and all the communications using either the WebSocket standard from HTML5 or Google Talk’s chat protocol! (see below as I use my personal computer to remote-control my work laptop where I am reading a PDF on microblogging in China and am also showing my desktop background image where the Jedi Android slashes up a Apple Death Star)

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How well does it work? The control is quite good – my mouse/keyboard movements registered immediately on the other computer – but the on-screen graphics/drawing speed was quite poor (par for the course for most sophisticated graphics drawing apps in the browser and for a beta extension). The means of controlling another desktop, while easy to use (especially if you are inviting someone to take a look at your machine) is very clumsy for some applications (i.e. a certain someone who wants to leave his computer in the office and use VNC/remote desktop to access it only when he needs to).

So, will this replace VNC/remote desktop anytime soon? No (nor, does it seem, were they the first to think up something like this), but that’s not the point. The point, at least to me, is that the browser is picking up more and more sophisticated capabilities and, while it may take a few more versions/years before we can actually use this as a replacement for VNC/remote desktop, the fact that we can even be contemplating that at all tells you how far browser technology has come and why the browser as a platform for applications will grow increasingly compelling.

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Web vs native

imageWhen Steve Jobs first launched the iPhone in 2007, Apple’s perception of where the smartphone application market would move was in the direction of web applications. The reasons for this are obvious: people are familiar with how to build web pages and applications, and it simplifies application delivery.

Yet in under a year, Apple changed course, shifting the focus of iPhone development from web applications to building native applications custom-built (by definition) for the iPhone’s operating system and hardware. While I suspect part of the reason this was done was to lock-in developers, the main reason was certainly the inadequacy of available browser/web technology. While we can debate the former, the latter is just plain obvious. In 2007, the state of web development was relatively primitive relative to today. There was no credible HTML5 support. Javascript performance was paltry. There was no real way for web applications to access local resources/hardware capabilities. Simply put, it was probably too difficult for Apple to kludge together an application development platform based solely on open web technologies which would get the sort of performance and functionality Apple wanted.

But, that was four years ago, and web technology has come a long way. Combine that with the tech commentator-sphere’s obsession with hyping up a rivalry between “native vs HTML5 app development”, and it begs the question: will the future of application development be HTML5 applications or native?

There are a lot of “moving parts” in a question like this, but I believe the question itself is a red herring. Enhancements to browser performance and the new capabilities that HTML5 will bring like offline storage, a canvas for direct graphic manipulation, and tools to access the file system, mean, at least to this tech blogger, that “HTML5 applications” are not distinct from native applications at all, they are simply native applications that you access through the internet. Its not a different technology vector – it’s just a different form of delivery.

Critics of this idea may cite that the performance and interface capabilities of browser-based applications lag far behind those of “traditional” native applications, and thus they will always be distinct. And, as of today, they are correct. However, this discounts a few things:

  • Browser performance and browser-based application design are improving at a rapid rate, in no small part because of the combination of competition between different browsers and the fact that much of the code for these browsers is open source. There will probably always be a gap between browser-based apps and native, but I believe this gap will continue to narrow to the point where, for many applications, it simply won’t be a deal-breaker anymore.
  • History shows that cross-platform portability and ease of development can trump performance gaps. Once upon a time, all developers worth their salt coded in low level machine language. But this was a nightmare – it was difficult to do simple things like showing text on a screen, and the code written only worked on specific chips and operating systems and hardware configurations. I learned C which helped to abstract a lot of that away, and, keeping with the trend of moving towards more portability and abstraction, the mobile/web developers of today develop with tools (Python, Objective C, Ruby, Java, Javascript, etc) which make C look pretty low-level and hard to work with. Each level of abstraction adds a performance penalty, but that has hardly stopped developers from embracing them, and I feel the same will be true of “HTML5”.
  • Huge platform economic advantages. There are three huge advantages today to HTML5 development over “traditional native app development”. The first is the ability to have essentially the same application run across any device which supports a browser. Granted, there are performance and user experience issues with this approach, but when you’re a startup or even a corporate project with limited resources, being able to get wide distribution for earlier products is a huge advantage. The second is that HTML5 as a platform lacks the control/economic baggage that iOS and even Android have where distribution is controlled and “taxed” (30% to Apple/Google for an app download, 30% cut of digital goods purchases). I mean, what other reason does Amazon have to move its Kindle application off of the iOS native path and into HTML5 territory? The third is that web applications do not require the latest and greatest hardware to perform amazing feats. Because these apps are fundamentally browser-based, using the internet to connect to a server-based/cloud-based application allows even “dumb devices” to do amazing things by outsourcing some of that work to another system. The combination of these three makes it easier to build new applications and services and make money off of them – which will ultimately lead to more and better applications and services for the “HTML5 ecosystem.”

Given Google’s strategic interest in the web as an open development platform, its no small wonder that they have pushed this concept the furthest. Not only are they working on a project called Native Client to let users achieve “native performance” with the browser, they’ve built an entire operating system centered entirely around the browser, Chrome OS, and were the first to build a major web application store, the Chrome Web Store to help with application discovery.

While it remains to be seen if any of these initiatives will end up successful, this is definitely a compelling view of how the technology ecosystem evolves, and, putting on my forward-thinking cap on, I would not be surprised if:

  1. The major operating systems became more ChromeOS-like over time. Mac OS’s dashboard widgets and Windows 7’s gadgets are already basically HTML5 mini-apps, and Microsoft has publicly stated that Windows 8 will support HTML5-based application development. I think this is a sign of things to come as the web platform evolves and matures.
  2. Continued focus on browser performance may lead to new devices/browsers focused on HTML5 applications. In the 1990s/2000s, there was a ton of attention focused on building Java accelerators in hardware/chips and software platforms who’s main function was to run Java. While Java did not take over the world the way its supporters had thought, I wouldn’t be surprised to see a similar explosion just over the horizon focused on HTML5/Javascript performance – maybe even HTML5 optimized chips/accelerators, additional ChromeOS-like platforms, and potentially browsers optimized to run just HTML5 games or enterprise applications?
  3. Web application discovery will become far more important. The one big weakness as it stands today for HTML5 is application discovery. Its still far easier to discover a native mobile app using the iTunes App Store or the Android Market than it is to find a good HTML5 app. But, as platform matures and the platform economics shift, new application stores/recommendation engines/syndication platforms will become increasingly critical.

I can’t wait :-).

(Image credit – iPhone SDK)

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Why I Switched From Firefox to Chrome

About a year ago, I wrote a post about how I prefer Mozilla’s Firefox web browser over Google’s Chrome browser as well as a few things it would take to get me to switch (and what Firefox should do to defend against that).

With the launch of Firefox 4 and Chrome 11 Beta, I decided now was as good a time as any to revisit that decision. I had been using the Firefox 4 beta’s and release candidates for several months and had been quite impressed by the improvements in speed. So, for the past two weeks I used the Chrome 11 beta exclusively – and the verdict? I have decided to switch browsers.

Shocked? I definitely was.

And, just as I did with my comparison of the DROID2 and the iPhone 4, I will make a long list of comparisons:

  • The speed advantage that Chrome has over Firefox 4, at least on my Windows 7 machines, is overrated. Firefox 4 is much faster than its predecessor. While there’s still an observable difference in startup time, the gap between the two, in my mind, has been narrowed, and it was literally not something that affected the quality of my browsing experience. Slight advantage to Chrome
  • I found I didn’t need browser history sync as much as I thought I did. As part of an effort to maintain work-life balance, I have a separate work computer from my personal computer. However, because my work oftentimes involves research in my “spare time”, its oftentimes useful for my work computer to know what I did at home and vice-versa – in fact this was a point I brought up when I previously compared Chrome to Firefox. Over the past two weeks of using solely Chrome, I realized that jotting notes in apps like Springpad and Google Tasks was really all I needed beyond Chrome’s natural ability to sync bookmarks and passwords, and that the lack of full browser sync actually did not interfere with my ability to be productive across both my computers. Slight advantage to Chrome
  • The Chrome Tweetdeck app wound up being a killer use case for me. While Google’s Chrome Web Store deserves a lot of the criticism that its little more than a collection of bookmarks, popular Twitter client Tweetdeck has one of the rare “apps” on the site which is actually app-like. While I find that the app itself doesn’t stay stable if it stays on for longer than half a workday, it uses a lot less memory and is a lot faster to start than the Adobe AIR version of Tweetdeck I had been using before, and, given the amount of time I spend on Twitter, this became a very compelling reason to use Chrome. Strong advantage to Chrome
  • Chrome’s notifications system makes it very easy to keep web applications running in the background. I was somewhat surprised at how useful this feature wound up being – but the latest versions of Chrome support desktop notifications which allow you to see at the corner of your screen an indicator if a new email, Tweet, or instant message is waiting you. This form of notification makes it more convenient to run web applications as you no longer have to constantly check the application to see if anything has happened. Strong advantage to Chrome
  • Chrome’s bookmark management is “good enough.” One browser feature I relied on very heavily in Firefox was keyword searching/keyword browsing. In a nutshell, instead of searching for “Harvard” on Wikipedia, I simply type into the address bar: “w Harvard” – with ‘the latter ‘w’ being the keyword I assigned to the Wikipedia search engine. I’ve made similar associations across all the major web sites and search engines I use. Chrome, sadly, makes it difficult to do anything with keyword searching and browsing (keyword browsing requires you to treat the link as if it were a keyword search), but its not impossible – making my browsing experience on the browser actually palatable. Weak advantage to Firefox.
  • Internal PDF capability. This is again one of those functions that you don’t realize its useful until you actually use it. As I read a fair number of white papers and investor presentations, I used to find myself constantly frustrated by the time it would take to load Adobe’s PDF reader in another browser. Google made a very smart call to integrate the PDF reading functionality straight into the browser. Advantage for Chrome.
  • One of the main reasons I stuck with Firefox for so long was because of its rich ecosystem of addon/extension developers. However, in recent times the breadth and quality of Chrome extensions has improved (Slight advantage for Chrome):
  • Developer tools: My old roommate and good friend Eric and I had a good back-and-forth back when I did my first browser comparison about the relative merits of Firefox’s main development tool Firebug and Chrome/Safari’s Webkit Inspector. I think it boils down to a stylistic preference, but I strongly prefer Firebug over Chrome’s developer toolset: for me, I’m more accustomed to the controls and I find it easier to use when I’m looking into or experimenting on an existing page. Advantage for Firefox (although subjective)

A quick tally above shows that there are a lot of specific reasons I identified to pick Chrome – and hence why I switched. Now, to be 100% open, I am continuing to maintain my Firefox 4/Firebug install so that I can continue to use the tool I prefer to manipulate webpages on-the-fly, but the comparison above gave me a pretty clear reason to switch browsers.

(Image credit)

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Web 3.0

About a year ago, I met up with Teresa Wu (of My Mom is a Fob and My Dad is a Fob fame). It was our first “Tweetup”, a word used by social media types to refer to meet-up’s between people who had only previously been friends over Twitter. It was a very geeky conversation (and what else would you expect from people who referred to their first face-to-face meeting as a Tweetup?), and at one point the conversation turned to discuss our respective visions of “Web 3.0”, which we loosely defined as what would come after the current also-loosely-defined “Web 2.0” wave of today’s social media websites.

On some level, trying to describe “Web 3.0” is as meaningless as applying the “Web 2.0” label to websites like Twitter and Facebook. It’s not an official title, and there are no set rules or standards on what makes something “Web 2.0”. But, the fact that there are certain shared characteristics between popular websites today versus their counterparts from only a few years ago gives the “Web 2.0” moniker some credible intellectual weight; and the fact that there will be significant investment in a new generation of web companies lends special commercial weight as to why we need to come up with a good conception of “Web 2.0” and a good vision for what comes after (Web 3.0).

So, I thought I would get on my soapbox here and list out three drivers which I believe will define what “Web 3.0” will look like, and I’d love to hear if anyone else has any thoughts.

  1. A flight to quality as users start struggling with ways to organize and process all the information the “Web 2.0” revolution provided.
  2. The development of new web technologies/applications which can utilize the full power of the billions of internet-connected devices that will come online by 2015.
  3. Browser improvement will continue and enable new and more compelling web applications.

I. Quality over quantity

In my mind, the most striking change in the Web has been the evolution of its primary role. Whereas “Web 1.0” was oriented around providing information to users, generally speaking, “Web 2.0” has been centered around user empowerment, both in terms of content creation (blogs, Youtube) and information sharing (social networks). Now, you no longer have to be the editor of the New York Times to have a voice – you can edit a Wikipedia page or upload a YouTube video or post up your thoughts on a blog. Similarly, you no longer have to be at the right cocktail parties to have a powerful network, you can find like-minded individuals over Twitter or LinkedIn or Facebook.

The result of this has been a massive explosion of the amount of information and content available for people and companies to use. While I believe this has generally been a good thing, its led to a situation where more and more users are being overwhelmed with information. As with the evolution of most markets, the first stage of the Web was simply about getting more – more information, more connections, more users, and more speed. This is all well and good when most companies/users are starving for information and connections, but as the demand for pure quantity dries up, the attention will eventually focus on quality.
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While there will always be people trying to set up the next Facebook or the next Twitter (and a small percentage of them will be successful), I strongly believe the smart money will be on the folks who can take the flood of information now available and milk that into something more useful, whether it be for targeting ads or simply with helping people who feel they are “drinking from a fire hose”. There’s a reason Google and Facebook invest so much in resources to build ads which are targeted at the user’s specific interests and needs. And, I feel that the next wave of Web startups will be more than simply tacking on “social” and “online” to an existing application. It will require developing applications that can actually process the wide array of information into manageable and useful chunks.

II. Mo’ devices, mo’ money

image A big difference between how the internet was used 10 years ago and how it is used today is the rise in the number of devices which can access the internet. This has been led by the rise of new smartphones, gaming consoles, and set-top-boxes. Even cameras have been released with the ability to access the internet (as evidenced by Sony’s Cybershot G3). While those of us in the US think of the internet as mainly a computer-driven phenomena, in much of the developing world and in places like Japan and Korea, computer access to the internet pales in comparison to access through mobile phones.

The result? Many of these interfaces to the internet are still somewhat clumsy, as they were built to mimic PC type access on a device which is definitely not the PC. While work by folks at Apple and at Google (with the iPhone and Android browsers) and at shops like Opera (with Opera Mini) and Skyfire have smoothed some of the rougher edges, there is only so far you can go with mimicking a computer experience on a device that lacks the memory/processing power limitations and screen size of a larger PC.

This isn’t to say that I think the web browsing experience on an iPhone or some other smartphone is bad – I actually am incredibly impressed by how well the PC browsing experience transferred to the mobile phone and believe that web developers should not be forced to make completely separate web pages for separate devices. But, I do believe that the real potential of these new internet-ready devices lies in what makes those individual devices unique. Instead of more attempts to copy the desktop browsing experience, I’d like to see more websites use the iPhone’s GPS to give location-specific content, or use the accelerometer to control a web game. I want to see social networking sites use a gaming console’s owner’s latest scores or screenshots. I want to see cameras use the web to overlay the latest Flickr comments on the pictures you’ve taken or to do augmented reality. I want to see set-top boxes seamlessly mix television content with information from the web. To me, the true potential of having 15 billion internet-connected devices is not 15 billion PC-like devices, but 15 billion devices each with its own features and capabilities.

III. Browser power

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While the Facebooks and Twitters of the world get (and deserve) a lot of credit for driving the Web 2.0 wave of innovation, a lot of that credit actually belongs to the web standards/browser development pioneers who made these innovations possible. Web applications ranging from office staples like Gmail and Google Docs would have been impossible without new browser technologies like AJAX and more powerful Javascript engines like Chrome’s V8, Webkit’s JavascriptCore, and Mozilla’s SpiderMonkey. Applications like YouTube and Picnik and Photoshop.com depend greatly on Adobe’s Flash product working well with browsers, and so, in many ways, it is web browser technology that is the limiting factor in the development of new web applications.

Is it any wonder, then, that Google, who views web applications as a big piece of its quest for web domination, created a free browser (Chrome) and two web-capable operating systems (ChromeOS and Android), and is investigating ways for web applications to access the full processing power of the computer (Native Client)? The result of Google’s pushes as well as the internet ecosystem’s efforts has been a steady improvement in web browser capability and a strong push on the new HTML5 standard.

So, what does this all mean for the shape of “Web 3.0”? It means that, over the next few years, we are going to see web applications dramatically improve in quality and functionality, making them more and more credible as disruptive innovations to the software industry. While it would be a mistake to interpret this trend, as some zealots do, as a sign that “web applications will replace all desktop software”, it does mean that we should expect to see a dramatic boost in the number and types of web applications, as well as the number of users.

Conclusion

I’ll admit – I kind of cheated. Instead of giving a single coherent vision of what the next wave of Web innovation will look like, I hedged my bets by outlining where I see major technology trends will take the industry. But, in the same way that “Web 2.0” wasn’t a monolithic entity (Facebook, WordPress, and Gmail have some commonalities, but you’d be hard pressed to say they’re just different variants of the same thing), I don’t think “Web 3.0” will be either. Or, maybe all the innovations will be mobile-phone-specific, context-sensitive, super powerful web applications…

(Image credit) (Image credit – PhD comics) (Image credit – mobile phone) (Image credit – Browser wars)

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